Review: 2022 Crypto Predictions
Tune in next week for our 2023 predictions!
Disclaimer, NFA, all that legal stuff: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.
Hi folks 🙋🏻♂️,
Earlier this year, I published my crypto 2022 predictions. Many things have happened since then, in what perhaps was the craziest roller coaster of a year in crypto. Hedge funds got liquidated, lending firms underwrote crappy deals with imaginary magic internet money as collateral, and the main character turned out to be a bad guy.
Let's revisit these predictions 👇
If you prefer to read this recap on Twitter, click here.
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1. Decentralized Stablecoins Capture 50% of Market Share
🔴 WRONG
UST and LUNA imploded -- and the dreams are over
We learn that endogenous collateral doesn't work
Developments are focusing on "stable value" assets, not necessarily USD-pegged stablecoin
2. ETH Underperforms Despite Layer 2 Success
🔴 WRONG
ETH outperformed other L1 smart contract assets, with the exception of TRX
The crypto market is still too small and everything moved in tandem (correlated)
3. One Top US-Based Crypto Project Forced to Relocate
🟡 ONGOING
US regulations are ramping up
The SEC claims that FTT is a security
Regulatory frameworks in developed countries have been primarily negative for developed markets
4. Emerging Markets VC Enter
🟡 ONGOING
While the press releases and media coverage aren't as widely publicized, funding activities in EMs have been ramping up
Emerging markets dominate Chainalysis Global Crypto Adoption Index.
https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2022-global-crypto-adoption-index/
5. Tokenomics Rework Is a Dominant Theme
🟢 RIGHT
SUSHI to direct tokenholders cut to the treasury
UNI testing fee switch
AAVE CRV launching stablecoins
SNX increasing revenue generation model
veTOKEN models are being criticized
6. A Large Entity Joins the Curve Wars and a Winner Is Determined
🔴 WRONG
No clear winner
CRV veCRV wars ended up being the most niche corner of the DeFi market that becomes irrelevant in macro terms as liquidity dries up
TVL dropping alongside the broader market
7. GameFi Is the Worst Performing Sector
🟢 RIGHT
AXS's number of players dropped significantly
The significant majority of > $50M market cap GameFi assets underperformed the broader market
8. ETH Flips BTC Post Merge
🔴 WRONG
ETH market cap is still 45.4% of BTC
ETH BTC ratio sustained after a meteoric rise in 2021, but still has some ways to go
9. PrivaShit Coins
🟡 ONGOING
A market-cap weight approach would show that privacy coins outperformed BTC and ETH
But if XMR is not a significant part of your allocation, you'll underperform
10. NFT Branding Gets Worse
🟢 RIGHT
The negative "environmental impact" of NFTs misinformed many people
OpenSea trading volume dropped from $4.8B in Jan 2022 to $253M in Nov 2022
If you talk to people outside of crypto, this one is obvious
Build Build Build
Tourists come and go to the crypto space. Some have jumped onto AI, while those who got burned might never touch it again. Deja Vu.
While I like to keep up and tinker with tech trends (imagine ChatGPT + Boston Dynamics 😱), I believe crypto is the only technology that is (i) a new asset class, (ii) transcends jurisdictions, and (iii) increases the velocity of capital.
During the last crypto bear market (2018), I was not in the position to build as much as I am today. I vowed not to repeat the same mistakes. One thing that I learned, having been in the space for 6 years, is that you double down when things get hard.
Crypto will be in a bear market for the next few years, so I’m doubling down.
Thus, I’m sending this email to also announce my new newsletter: Chain Catalyst.
Why am I doing this?
Once again, the bear market is the time to double down. But there are also 3 good reasons to embark on Chain Catalyst:
👷 It makes me a better employee. Crypto is moving faster than ever. They said that if you don’t write it, you don’t really understand it. I find that’s increasingly true with crypto. By writing an extra 1-2 hours every 2 days, I become much more in tune with the space.
🤝 I found a great partner. A successful internet marketer that can actually get my writing in front of a larger audience. You can only write so much to a small audience. I need those dopamine hits.
⚙️ It creates a flywheel. A successful media presence is extremely powerful. The power of creating content while working as a professional is enormous. In the future, it will be required (hint: ArkInvest) to create content, but that’s a topic for another time.
Until next time,
Marco M.
