Review: 2022 Crypto Predictions

Tune in next week for our 2023 predictions!

Disclaimer, NFA, all that legal stuff: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.

---

Hi folks 🙋🏻‍♂️,

Earlier this year, I published my crypto 2022 predictions. Many things have happened since then, in what perhaps was the craziest roller coaster of a year in crypto. Hedge funds got liquidated, lending firms underwrote crappy deals with imaginary magic internet money as collateral, and the main character turned out to be a bad guy.

Let's revisit these predictions 👇

If you prefer to read this recap on Twitter, click here.

---

Today’s issue is brought to you by Chain Catalyst

Chain Catalyst is the best newsletter for web3 builders and investors 📰

Discover the next best web3 products, strategies, and trends - in just 5 minutes. You’ll be receiving the following, on top of a succinct coverage of news that matters.

• Monday - charts of the week, product launches

• Wednesday - case study, features & governance update

• Friday - investor-builders highlight, funding update

👉 CLICK HERE to read the latest issue

---

1. Decentralized Stablecoins Capture 50% of Market Share

🔴 WRONG

• UST and LUNA imploded -- and the dreams are over

• We learn that endogenous collateral doesn't work

• Developments are focusing on "stable value" assets, not necessarily USD-pegged stablecoin

2. ETH Underperforms Despite Layer 2 Success

🔴 WRONG

• ETH outperformed other L1 smart contract assets, with the exception of TRX

• The crypto market is still too small and everything moved in tandem (correlated)

3. One Top US-Based Crypto Project Forced to Relocate

🟡 ONGOING

• US regulations are ramping up

• The SEC claims that FTT is a security

• Regulatory frameworks in developed countries have been primarily negative for developed markets

4. Emerging Markets VC Enter

🟡 ONGOING

• While the press releases and media coverage aren't as widely publicized, funding activities in EMs have been ramping up

• Emerging markets dominate Chainalysis Global Crypto Adoption Index.

• https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2022-global-crypto-adoption-index/

5. Tokenomics Rework Is a Dominant Theme

🟢 RIGHT

• SUSHI to direct tokenholders cut to the treasury

• UNI testing fee switch

• AAVE CRV launching stablecoins

• SNX increasing revenue generation model

• veTOKEN models are being criticized

6. A Large Entity Joins the Curve Wars and a Winner Is Determined

🔴 WRONG

• No clear winner

• CRV veCRV wars ended up being the most niche corner of the DeFi market that becomes irrelevant in macro terms as liquidity dries up

• TVL dropping alongside the broader market

7. GameFi Is the Worst Performing Sector

🟢 RIGHT

• AXS's number of players dropped significantly

• The significant majority of > $50M market cap GameFi assets underperformed the broader market

  

  

8. ETH Flips BTC Post Merge

🔴 WRONG

• ETH market cap is still 45.4% of BTC

• ETH BTC ratio sustained after a meteoric rise in 2021, but still has some ways to go

9. PrivaShit Coins

🟡 ONGOING

• A market-cap weight approach would show that privacy coins outperformed BTC and ETH

• But if XMR is not a significant part of your allocation, you'll underperform

10. NFT Branding Gets Worse

🟢 RIGHT

• The negative "environmental impact" of NFTs misinformed many people

• OpenSea trading volume dropped from $4.8B in Jan 2022 to $253M in Nov 2022

• If you talk to people outside of crypto, this one is obvious

---

Build Build Build

Tourists come and go to the crypto space. Some have jumped onto AI, while those who got burned might never touch it again. Deja Vu.

While I like to keep up and tinker with tech trends (imagine ChatGPT + Boston Dynamics 😱), I believe crypto is the only technology that is (i) a new asset class, (ii) transcends jurisdictions, and (iii) increases the velocity of capital.

During the last crypto bear market (2018), I was not in the position to build as much as I am today. I vowed not to repeat the same mistakes. One thing that I learned, having been in the space for 6 years, is that you double down when things get hard.

Crypto will be in a bear market for the next few years, so I’m doubling down.

Thus, I’m sending this email to also announce my new newsletter: Chain Catalyst.

Why am I doing this?

Once again, the bear market is the time to double down. But there are also 3 good reasons to embark on Chain Catalyst:

• 👷 It makes me a better employee. Crypto is moving faster than ever. They said that if you don’t write it, you don’t really understand it. I find that’s increasingly true with crypto. By writing an extra 1-2 hours every 2 days, I become much more in tune with the space.

• 🤝 I found a great partner. A successful internet marketer that can actually get my writing in front of a larger audience. You can only write so much to a small audience. I need those dopamine hits.

• ⚙️ It creates a flywheel. A successful media presence is extremely powerful. The power of creating content while working as a professional is enormous. In the future, it will be required (hint: ArkInvest) to create content, but that’s a topic for another time.

Until next time,

Marco M.

---